Better Bets

Your Better Bets

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How an estimate is made

Recent games count more than old ones.
The player's average is pulled toward the average for the role, so a hot streak of three games does not run away with the number.
The projection is adjusted for matchup, weather, injuries and game script.
That projection becomes a chance of going over or under the line, then is checked against the recent hit rate.
The result is nudged toward 50% and shown with a range. Small samples get a wider range and an "Early lean" label.

Props where neither side clears 55% are hidden as toss-ups. The edge compares the estimate with the book’s price after removing the book’s margin.

Privacy & Responsible PlayYour data and responsible use

Better Bets is a research tool and never holds money or places bets. Set a limit before you play, never chase losses, and take a break if it stops being fun. Free help: 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537).

This is a preview build

Game logs, book prices, changes and the simulated record here are sample data so you can review the layout and the model. They are not live.